⚠ The Next Engine Has to Be Agreed With a PartnerModerate threat

GE Aerospace (GE) — threat to the moat

Spend too little and lose thirty years; spend too much too early and lose the money.

The successor to the LEAP will determine GE Aerospace's aftermarket from roughly 2040 to 2070. It cannot be launched by GE Aerospace alone.

Research and development, in $m1,286Self-funded 20241,580Self-funded 20252,699Total 20242,989Total 2025A 23% rise in self-funded research, buying the option on a franchise that runs to the 2070s.
Two boards, in two countries, have to commit several billion dollars at the same moment.

CFM International is a fifty-fifty non-consolidated joint venture1, which means the commitment of several billion dollars and a decade of engineering to an open-fan architecture requires Safran to agree, on the same terms, at the same time. That is a materially harder decision than a single company's board makes, and it has to be made against an airframer's timetable rather than a manufacturer's.

The technology risk is real and the programme is candid about its status: RISE is a demonstrator, not a product for sale2, with more than 350 tests completed toward ground and flight tests this decade3. Open fan is not an incremental improvement on the LEAP; it is a different machine, requiring the airframe to be designed around it.

There is a scenario in which both partners are right to wait and the waiting costs them the position. If an airframer launches a new narrowbody sooner than expected and selects a conventional-architecture engine that is ready, CFM's advantage on the current generation does not transfer. The installed base protects the 2030s. It does nothing for the 2050s.

The opposite scenario is the historically more common one: aircraft programmes slip, the incumbent engine keeps selling, and the money spent early is spent again later.

There is no number here yet. Until a next-generation narrowbody is launched, the honest measure is the research and development line — $2,989 million in total in 2025, of which $1,580 million was GE Aerospace's own4 — and whether it is rising fast enough to keep the option alive.

References
  1. ReportedCFM International is a fifty-fifty non-consolidated joint venture, which means the commitment of several billion dollars and a decade of engineering to an open-fan architecture requires Safran to agree, on the same terms, at the same time.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Item 1 Business — segment descriptions for Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies, the CFM International 50-50 non-consolidated joint venture with Safran Aircraft Engines, the commercial engine platforms (LEAP, CFM56, GEnx, GE9X, CF6, GE90), the defence platforms (F110, F404, F414, T408, T700, T901, LM2500), the Propulsion & Additive Technologies brands, the CFM RISE programme, the customer description including airframers and sole-source positions, and the segment revenue and services shares. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  2. Third-party estimateThe technology risk is real and the programme is candid about its status: RISE is a demonstrator, not a product for sale, with more than 350 tests completed toward ground and flight tests this decade.
    Aviation and market coverage of GE Aerospace's narrowbody position and delivery ramp - the LEAP as the exclusive powerplant on the Boeing 737 MAX and holding more than 55% of the Airbus A320neo family through the CFM joint venture, the target of about 2,000 LEAP deliveries in 2026, first-half deliveries up 41%, and CFM RISE described as a technology demonstrator rather than a product for sale. — 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe technology risk is real and the programme is candid about its status: RISE is a demonstrator, not a product for sale, with more than 350 tests completed toward ground and flight tests this decade.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Item 1 Business — segment descriptions for Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies, the CFM International 50-50 non-consolidated joint venture with Safran Aircraft Engines, the commercial engine platforms (LEAP, CFM56, GEnx, GE9X, CF6, GE90), the defence platforms (F110, F404, F414, T408, T700, T901, LM2500), the Propulsion & Additive Technologies brands, the CFM RISE programme, the customer description including airframers and sole-source positions, and the segment revenue and services shares. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedUntil a next-generation narrowbody is launched, the honest measure is the research and development line — $2,989 million in total in 2025, of which $1,580 million was GE Aerospace's own — and whether it is rising fast enough to keep the option alive.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Item 1 general and Item 2 Properties — the installed base of approximately 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines and the statement that it supports an aftermarket representing approximately 70% of revenue, the FLIGHT DECK operating model, customers in approximately 120 countries, the facility count, human capital and employee numbers, the intellectual property discussion, the research and development table splitting company-funded from customer- and partner-funded spending, and the engine testing milestones. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026