⚠ Surviving Is Not the Same as WinningModerate threat
Barrick Mining (B) — threat to the moat
Barrick survived the last bust through asset sales, write-downs and a $10.4bn loss, which is what distress looks like rather than what a cost moat looks like.
The case that Barrick can survive a downturn rests on evidence: it has done so. Gold averaged $3,431 an ounce in 20251, a world away from the conditions it last had to survive: it came through 2012 to 2015, when the gold price fell for four consecutive years and the company reported losses in 2012, 2013 and 2014, including one of $10.4 billion.
That is a fact and it is a strange thing to build a moat page on. Survival was achieved through asset sales, write-downs, dividend cuts and a change of management, which is what distress looks like rather than what resilience looks like. A genuine cost moat means a downturn is an opportunity — the low-cost producer keeps generating cash while rivals suspend operations, and buys their assets at the bottom. Barrick did not do that last time; it was one of the companies being restructured.
The rebuilt version is materially stronger. Debt is a fraction of what it was, the portfolio has been concentrated on the best assets, and the company has been returning substantial cash rather than committing it. Whether that translates into offence rather than defence next time is untested.
The counterweight is that the balance sheet is genuinely strong now, which is the precondition for behaving well in a trough even if it does not guarantee it.
The number to watch is net debt and the buyback pace as gold falls. A miner that keeps buying its own shares through a downturn has a cost position. One that stops did not.
- ReportedGold averaged US$3,431.5/oz in 2025, a level far above the years in which Barrick reported consecutive annual losses.World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q4 and Full Year 2025 — total gold demand including OTC exceeded 5,000t for the first time, worth an unprecedented US$555bn (+45%), with the LBMA gold price setting 53 new all-time highs during 2025; the annual average price was US$3,431.5/oz (+44%) and the Q4 average a record US$4,135.2/oz (+55%). Supply: mine production a record 3,671.6t (+1%), net producer hedging -73.6t, recycled gold 1,404.3t (+3%) — described as a relatively muted response to a 67% increase in the US dollar gold price — for total supply of 5,002.3t. Demand: jewellery fabrication 1,638.0t (-19%) and jewellery consumption 1,542.3t (-18%) with jewellery demand value up 18% to a record; bar and coin 1,374.1t (+16%), a 12-year high; ETFs and similar products +801.2t against -2.9t in 2024, the second strongest year on record; central banks and other institutions 863.3t against 1,092.4t, at the upper end of the expected range, historically elevated and geographically widespread but slowed from their recent pace — FY2025 · publ. 2026-01-29 · source ↗