Agnico Eagle: The Rival That Chose Boring CountriesThin moat

Agnico Eagle produced 3.447 million ounces of gold in 2025 against Barrick's 3.26 million, taking second place in the industry by roughly 200,000 ounces. Its all-in sustaining cost guidance for 2026 is $1,400 to $1,550 an ounce; Barrick's is $1,760 to $1,950. The ranges do not overlap¹.

The interesting part is how Agnico got there, because it was not by finding better rocks. It was by deciding, deliberately and for years, to operate almost entirely in Canada, Finland and Australia — jurisdictions where a mining licence is a property right, permitting is slow but predictable, and no government has ever taken a mine. That choice costs something in geology: the highest-grade undeveloped deposits in the world are mostly not in those countries.

The market has been paying for the trade. Agnico trades at a forward earnings multiple around 11.5 times, roughly 22 percent above the industry average, while Barrick's shares carry a discount that widened through the Mali dispute. That spread is the clearest available price on political risk in the sector, and it is the strongest single argument against the way Barrick assembled its portfolio.

Barrick's defence is that the discount is temporary and the geology is permanent, and that Nevada — where its largest reserve concentration sits — is as safe as anything Agnico owns. The planned separate listing of the North American business is an attempt to make the market price that explicitly.

Watch the AISC gap. If it has not narrowed by 2027, the difference is not composition.