✦ Quantum, Isomorphic & the MoonshotsThin moat

The moonshot drawer holds the bets with no P&L and, occasionally, a result that moves a whole field. Willow was one: in December 2024 Google's quantum chip demonstrated error correction that improves as the system scales¹ — the milestone the discipline had chased for decades, and the strongest claim any company holds to leadership in a technology whose commercial era has not begun.

Isomorphic Labs is the drawer's other live wire. Built on DeepMind's AlphaFold — the model that effectively solved protein structure — it raised $600 million in March 2025 led by Thrive Capital, with partnered programs already signed with Eli Lilly and Novartis². If AI-first drug design works anywhere, it works here first.

The accounting is unsentimental: Other Bets books roughly a billion and a half in revenue against multi-billion-dollar annual losses³, and has for years. Most moonshots die; that is what the drawer is for. I rate this cluster thin — real scientific leads, no economics, no timetable — and note only that the market prices it all at approximately nothing, which is the one price at which a Willow or an AlphaFold is always worth holding. Watch for a first Isomorphic molecule entering the clinic: that is the moment a moonshot starts becoming a business.