RetailNarrow moat

Vistra (VST) — moat facet

Five million customers who can leave in minutes, and the internal buyer that turns a merchant fleet into a hedged one.

Retail is where Vistra's revenue is booked. The segment had operating revenues of $14,340 million in 2025, from $12,797 million in 2024 and $10,572 million in 2023 1, and $14,233 million of it came from outside customers, 80% of Vistra's external revenue 2. It serves about five million residential, commercial and industrial customers in 18 states and the District of Columbia under brands including TXU Energy 3.

Retail electricity sales volumes (GWh)133,3612024139,139202566,590H1 202561,909H1 2026Vistra 10-K FY2025 and 10-Q Q2 2026 (ERCOT plus Northeast/Midwest)
Volume rose 4% in 2025 and fell 7% in the first half of 2026.

It is paid per kilowatt-hour at contracted rates. Retail sold 139,139 GWh in 2025, 79,165 GWh in ERCOT and 59,974 GWh in the Northeast and Midwest, against 133,361 GWh the year before 4. Most of that power is bought from Vistra's own plants: the Texas and East segments sold it $4,419 million and $4,005 million of power in 2025 5.

It is the least capital-intensive and least volatile segment. Adjusted EBITDA was $1,463 million in 2024 and $1,622 million in 2025, and net income $1,216 million and $1,290 million 6; the 10-K attributes 2025 to higher retail margins on strong customer counts, one-time gains from supply cost management and weather 7.

The latest half was weaker in volume and in reported profit. Retail sold 61,909 GWh in the first six months of 2026 against 66,590 GWh, and Adjusted EBITDA was $841 million against $940 million; the June quarter was $773 million against $756 million 8. Net income for the half was a loss of $240 million against a profit of $1,009 million 9, most of it unrealised marks on the hedges that make the retail book work.

The number to watch is retail volume sold. It fell 7% in the first half of 2026 10; volumes falling while the generators sign twenty-year contracts would mean the internal hedge is shrinking just as the merchant exposure is being sold off.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Retail volumes fell 7% in the first half of 2026 and half-year Adjusted EBITDA fell to $841M from $940M.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Retail electricity sales volumes, first half
61,909 GWh in H1 2026, from 66,590 GWh

Volume falling while the generators sign twenty-year contracts would mean the internal hedge is shrinking as the merchant exposure is sold.

Source: Vistra 10-Q Q2 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe segment had operating revenues of $14,340 million in 2025, from $12,797 million in 2024 and $10,572 million in 2023 , and $14,233 million of it came from outside customers, 80% of Vistra's external revenue .
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcThe segment had operating revenues of $14,340 million in 2025, from $12,797 million in 2024 and $10,572 million in 2023 , and $14,233 million of it came from outside customers, 80% of Vistra's external revenue .
    Moat Explorer calculation from Vistra's Form 10-K FY2025 and Q2 2026 10-Q: external revenue by segment (segment revenue less intersegment sales), shares of revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, volume changes — FY2023 to H1 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt serves about five million residential, commercial and industrial customers in 18 states and the District of Columbia under brands including TXU Energy .
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedRetail sold 139,139 GWh in 2025, 79,165 GWh in ERCOT and 59,974 GWh in the Northeast and Midwest, against 133,361 GWh the year before .
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedMost of that power is bought from Vistra's own plants: the Texas and East segments sold it $4,419 million and $4,005 million of power in 2025 .
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAdjusted EBITDA was $1,463 million in 2024 and $1,622 million in 2025, and net income $1,216 million and $1,290 million ; the 10-K attributes 2025 to higher retail margins on strong customer counts, one-time gains from supply cost management and weather .
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAdjusted EBITDA was $1,463 million in 2024 and $1,622 million in 2025, and net income $1,216 million and $1,290 million ; the 10-K attributes 2025 to higher retail margins on strong customer counts, one-time gains from supply cost management and weather .
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedRetail sold 61,909 GWh in the first six months of 2026 against 66,590 GWh, and Adjusted EBITDA was $841 million against $940 million; the June quarter was $773 million against $756 million .
    Vistra Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - segment Adjusted EBITDA and net income for the quarter and half, retail sales volumes, Meta PPA delivery schedule — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedNet income for the half was a loss of $240 million against a profit of $1,009 million , most of it unrealised marks on the hedges that make the retail book work.
    Vistra Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - segment Adjusted EBITDA and net income for the quarter and half, retail sales volumes, Meta PPA delivery schedule — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcIt fell 7% in the first half of 2026 ; volumes falling while the generators sign twenty-year contracts would mean the internal hedge is shrinking just as the merchant exposure is being sold off.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Vistra's Form 10-K FY2025 and Q2 2026 10-Q: external revenue by segment (segment revenue less intersegment sales), shares of revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, volume changes — FY2023 to H1 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026